Only in Guayaquil, the number of deceased would exceed 5,000.
Given the presence of the coronavirus in the country, the mathematician Juan José Illingworth indicated that the number of deaths and infections can increase.
Illingworth believed it necessary for the Government to have two reports of figures of those affected by coronavirus. The first, the officer; and the second, of those who have not died from this cause, but which is part of the global statistics.
Until April 9, the COVID-19 pandemic in Guayas would have caused more than 7,600 deaths. This calculation was made based on a report collected from two cemetery operators and a projection from two other cemeteries, according to their average participation in funeral services.
Illingworth mentioned that not all died from COVID-19, as in some cases it was because they were unable to comply with their dialysis treatment in the face of the health emergency.
For the calculation, he took the average number of deaths per day in the province of Guayas prior to the pandemic, which would be 63 people. This factor analyzed with the information from the cemeteries, determined that in Guayaquil 5,600 people have been buried and in Guayas 8,900 people, between March 21 and April 9, in general, included by COVID-19 and other diseases.
The mathematician explained that on March 21 there was a significant increase in deaths in cemeteries.
In these circumstances, he stated that to determine the number of deaths from coronavirus, he took the general figure of 8,900 deaths in Guayas and subtracted about 1,300 people, which would be regular daily deaths. This leaves a figure higher than 7,600 people killed by COVID-19 in Guayas, especially in Guayaquil, Samborondón and Daule. However, he added that this information remains somewhat subjective because there are people who have died but their relatives, in despair and for not being cared for, have taken other paths.
According to his study, in Guayaquil, the numbers of fatal victims would reach more than 5,000.
In Jardines de la Esperanza, for example, Illingworth registered 1,600 deaths between March 21 and April 9, and in Parques de la Paz, the number would be much higher in the coming days due to the bodies still to be buried.
That data allowed him to make a count of the number of possible infected. «If the average mortality rate in the world is almost 6 percent, and even the Ecuadorian office, which is below reality, is similar, under my estimate of 7,600 deaths from COVID-19 in Guayas, the number of infected it would be over 100,000 ”, he emphasized.
Source: Vistazo Magazine, social networks
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